Expect barnburner gains in US employment this week
US Dollar: Weekly Trading Range (92.50 – 94.10)
Spot
DXY92.65
Week ahead bias
Bullish
Weekly range
92.50 – 94.10
1 month target
94.00
US Dollar Comment: In the US this week will be all about Job numbers. Based on the surplus of unfilled jobs and the downtrend in jobless claims, hiring is expected to be faster than consensus expectations for August despite economic growth showing signs of near-term deceleration. Analysts are also looking for a cooling in the ISM indicators, expecting more of the deceleration in services compared to subsequent month’s figures.
Non-Farm Payrolls - Hiring looks to have continued at a brisk pace in August, signalled by a further drop in jobless claims. Higher wages and recruitment efforts likely fuelled a net gain of 900K jobs. Job gains will again have been concentrated in services that have reopened. The lofty gain in jobs could cause the unemployment rate to fall to 5.2%. Most analysts expect barnburner gains in employment supporting the USD against G10FX.
Canadian Dollar: Weekly Trading Range (1.2575 -1.2825)
Spot
USD/CAD1.2617
Week ahead bias
Bullish
Weekly range
1.2575 -1.2825
1 month target
1.2600
Canadian Dollar Comment (Weekly range 1.2575 -1.2825): In Canada, the trade balance is likely to narrow but the attention will be on monthly and quarterly GDP reports. The fact that Q2 ended on a solid note helps set us up for that stronger Q3, July will also get a lift from reopening services during the summer’s trough in Covid-19.
GDP Data – Stricter restrictions during the third wave couldn’t hold back Canada’s economy. From April to June, GDP looks likely to have advanced at a 2 1⁄2% annualized pace. The housing market was again a star performer despite lockdowns in many parts of the country. Import data suggests that businesses were making up for lost time, buying more machinery and equipment during the period too. While spending on services was clearly held back in the second quarter, it would seem like households were able to find ways to make other purchases. A solid beginning to the quarter in July should set the stage for a robust Q3 for GDP. That said, with the fourth wave now here, it seems likely that growth this fall, and winter will be more subdued.
Current Account Data - For the first time in years, Canada’s current account moved back into surplus territory in Q1, and it seems like there’s a chance it remained there in the second quarter. Despite a weak showing for real exports during the period, nominal outbound shipments rose on the back of higher prices, particularly for energy products. The overall current account balance likely still eked out a slight $0.5bn surplus in Q2. The massive trade surplus seen in June wasn’t likely repeated in July, but the overall balance seems to have easily remained above water. The weakening Canadian dollar in July also would have made imports more expensive before affecting exports to the same extent. As a result, expect the trade surplus in July at $1.2bn.
Currency Chart
Get access to our market experts and sign up to receive the latest updates on any currency with our real-time exchange rate reports.
Sign up to receive the latest market news from our experts.
FAQs
Who can use the MTFX payment service?
Individuals and businesses who need to send money in foreign currency internationally can use MTFX’s services. The beneficiary of the transfer must have a bank account for the funds to be paid into.
Personal clients usually use our services to transfer money between their own accounts in two different countries.
Business clients usually use our services to transfer funds to suppliers, fund international operations, or repatriate overseas earnings.
Why should I use MTFX and not my own bank?
MTFX offers currency exchange rates that are 2-5% better than those offered by the banks. Personal clients usually save hundreds of dollars per transfer and for larger transfers, the savings can run into the thousands.
We also offer excellent customer service, dedicated currency specialists, and a 24/7 online platform with best-in-class technology that allows you to complete transfers from any device virtually anywhere in the world.
Business customers save with better currency exchange rates and proven solutions geared towards managing and mitigating foreign exchange risk. Our solutions include forward contracts, market orders, rate alert services, and much more - all backed by great technology and great people.
How do customers send funds to MTFX?
Funds can be transferred via wire transfer, Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT), or ACH payment services. MTFX maintains bank accounts in all major currencies with highly-rated banks. Our banking infrastructure ensures that you can transfer funds to us quickly and securely.
How long does it take MTFX to transfer funds?
Our global network of banking partners allows us to get funds to virtually anywhere in the world quickly and efficiently. Most wire transfers from MTFX will be received by your beneficiary within 24-48 hours. MTFX also offers same-day transfers that are almost instantaneous, as well as low-cost in-country payment services for your less urgent transfers. For further information please speak to one of our currency specialists.
Who can use the MTFX payment service?
