The dollar showed resilience this week after a solid US jobs report, with non-farm payrolls jumping 147,000 in June. The data fueled doubts that the Fed will rush into rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and lifting the DXY to 97.12. The greenback surged across the board, gaining against the yen and the franc, while also edging up on the euro and pound. Yet beneath the dollar’s shine, big-picture risks still lurk. Investors remain wary of spiraling US debt, talk of Trump’s eye-watering $3.3 trillion fiscal plan, and lingering fears about the Fed’s political independence, all swirling together in whispers of a beautiful passing of dollar supremacy. In the week ahead, traders will eye FOMC minutes, especially remarks from Powell, and watch for any fiscal catalysts that could either extend the dollar's resilience or start the next act of its slow retreat.

The Canadian dollar showed modest strength this week as Ottawa’s decision to scrap its digital services levy reignited US–Canada trade talks and sparked record highs in TSX futures. While softer oil prices and a briefly resurgent USD provided some resistance, the loonie held firm, even after robust US payrolls data tried to tip the balance back toward the greenback. With USD/CAD hovering near 1.3600, traders are bracing for market volatility ahead of key tariff deadlines on July 9 and July 21. A breakthrough in trade negotiations could keep CAD buoyant, while any hiccups might clip its wings. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada remains in wait-and-see mode, leaving markets guessing whether inflation will keep rate cuts on ice a bit longer. For now, the loonie seems ready to ride the waves of trade headlines and global risk sentiment.

Expected weekly trading range:

1.34 - 1.38

The euro maintained dominance this week as EUR/USD pushed above 1.175. Markets weighed Trump’s looming tariff deadline and jitters over a mammoth $3.4 trillion US spending plan. Despite solid US jobs data capping gains, the euro found support from eurozone inflation hitting the ECB’s 2% target in June, prompting speculation that rate cuts could be on pause for now. Still, ECB officials remain wary of an overly strong euro, especially if it breaches $1.20, which could pinch exports and growth. Looking ahead, markets will be glued to the July 9 tariff deadline, FOMC minutes, and any fresh signals from the ECB on how high they’ll tolerate the euro’s ascent. For now, the single currency stays cautiously bid, but a firm break higher may hinge on both US political turbulence and eurozone growth surprises.

Expected weekly trading range:

1.58 - 1.62

The pound weathered an up-and-down week as UK fiscal jitters rattled markets. Early turmoil around talk of Chancellor Reeves’s possible ouster sent GBP tumbling below $1.36 and gilt yields surging near 4.68%, only for PM Starmer’s backing to steady the ship. Domestic resilience showed through as services PMI clocked its best reading in 10 months, but the pound still faced crosscurrents from global risk sentiment and the dollar’s swings ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. GBP/USD ultimately settled above $1.36, holding onto impressive YTD gains despite political noise. Looking ahead, investors will eye fiscal announcements, BoE commentary, and fresh economic data, all of which could sway the pound’s high-wire act between solid fundamentals and fiscal unease.

Expected weekly trading range:

1.83 - 1.89

The yen found fresh support this week as dollar strength faltered ahead of the looming Trump tariff deadline and worries mounted over US fiscal sustainability. A stellar 4.7% jump in Japan’s May household spending, the fastest in nearly three years, underscored domestic momentum, adding fuel to persistent inflation above the BOJ’s 2% target. Yet policy signals remain mixed: Takata talks up rate hikes as a true dawn for Japan’s economy, while Masu urges caution amid trade uncertainties. With USD/JPY slipping modestly, markets are bracing for pivotal cues from both BOJ voices and US trade headlines, as the yen keeps toggling between domestic resilience and global risk crosswinds.

Expected weekly trading range:

104.63 - 107.80

The franc held firm this week as the dollar eased, with USD/CHF dipping to around 0.7930–0.7950 amid growing unease over US fiscal plans and looming tariff deadlines. Swiss inflation surprised higher at +0.1% YoY in June, soothing deflation fears and nudging markets to dial back expectations for further SNB cuts. The SNB, now steady at a 0% rate, remains vigilant for any excessive CHF gains, though fading sight deposits hint at less aggressive intervention for now. Looking ahead, the July 9 US tariff deadline and fresh Swiss data will steer sentiment, with safe-haven flows ready to surge if global jitters return.

Expected weekly trading range:

0.57 - 0.59

The yuan held steady around 7.16-7.17 this week, with the PBoC’s stronger midpoint fix underscoring its commitment to stability even as the trade-weighted CFETS index slipped to a multi-year low. Markets are eyeing possible policy easing, with whispers of a modest LPR cut before the Politburo meeting and deeper moves later in the summer. Meanwhile, China’s digital ambitions are gathering steam, as fintech giants push for offshore yuan stablecoins to bolster global usage. Next week, traders will watch for new easing signals, PMI data, and shifts in the midpoint fix for clues on the yuan’s tight trading band amid a still-vulnerable dollar backdrop.

Expected weekly trading range:

5.19 - 5.35

The rupee ended the week steady, posting only minor changes despite global dollar fluctuations and varied risk sentiment. Midweek, hopes for a breakthrough in US–India trade talks lifted the currency to a one-month high, before stabilizing again. Strong US payrolls initially supported the dollar, though some softness later in the week helped INR stay anchored above 85.00. Rising FX reserves, now close to $700B, and measured RBI liquidity management continue to keep volatility in check. Looking ahead, markets will focus on the July 9 US–India trade deadline and the Fed minutes, both of which could influence USD/INR’s tight range in the coming days.

Expected weekly trading range:

61.98 - 63.86

The Australian dollar slipped slightly this week, down roughly 0.3% despite broad USD softness. The market remains cautious ahead of the RBA’s July 8 meeting, where a third consecutive 25 bp cut is widely expected. A Reuters poll suggests four to five cuts in total for 2025, reinforcing bearish sentiment for the AUD. Easing commodity prices, particularly in oil and metals, have tempered AUD’s traditional support as a resource currency. Meanwhile, investors are also bracing for the July 9 US tariff deadline, which could sway global risk appetite and AUD sentiment. Next week’s focus will remain on the RBA’s decision and guidance, as well as domestic economic data that could either confirm or challenge the current easing path.

Expected weekly trading range:

0.88 - 0.90

NZD/USD traded in a tight range, closing above 0.605. The kiwi remained largely steady, caught between mixed global risk sentiment and shifting USD dynamics amid uncertainty over Trump's tariff policy, US debt concerns, and evolving Fed expectations. Domestically, markets are focused on the upcoming RBNZ decision on July 9, where the bank is widely expected to hold the OCR at 3.25%, with only a 36% chance of a cut priced in. RBNZ officials have stressed a cautious, data-driven stance, hinting the easing cycle may be nearing its end. Solid Q1 growth and resilient household spending bolster this view. For the week ahead, markets will scrutinize the RBNZ’s tone for hints on future policy, while USD movements and domestic data will play a crucial role in shaping NZD direction.

Expected weekly trading range:

0.81 - 0.83

Mexican peso traded relatively quietly this week, closing above 18.50 thanks to high domestic yields, confidence in trade ties, and broader US dollar softness. Yet a key risk now looms with the expiration of the US tariff freeze, which could pressure the peso, though analysts note Mexico remains shielded by USMCA exemptions. A Reuters poll forecasts the peso could weaken over the next year toward 19.80, though strong FX reserves and Banxico’s cautious rate cuts, keeping the benchmark near 8.5%, continue to support stability. Looking ahead, markets will focus on how tariffs, global risk sentiment, and USD rate cut timing influence MXN, with many expecting only gradual peso softness rather than sharp declines.

Expected weekly trading range:

13.49 - 13.91