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Daily Currency Update

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We’re trading in a flat dollar environment

USD: The greenback continues to hand back some of last week's 2%+ rally, but the move masks strong moves on the crosses. A flat dollar environment is allowing several cross positions to perform. This environment will probably continue today with global equity markets (including Asia for a change) pushing to new highs. US markets received a boost yesterday with news that there has been some progress on the US infrastructure bill ($559bn bi-partisan agreement from a Senate panel) and also healthy US banks stress tests. It's quite impressive really that the 23 banks stress-tested by the Fed showed capital ratios still double the minimum capital requirement when stressed by a scenario of a 4% GDP contraction. Data wise, today we see the May PCE inflation data where the market is looking for a 3.9% YoY headline and 3.4% YoY core. The bar may therefore be high for a nasty surprise and one that might push the Fed into early tapering and tightening.

CAD: The CAD continues rangebound trading from the mid 1.22 area consistently capped in the low 1.23. There is little on the domestic calendar to affect trading in the near term (the next big release is the April GDP report next Wednesday). Spreads, the risk mood and commodities/terms of trade remain CAD-supportive. The fair value estimate for spot today remains in the low 1.18s.

EUR: The ECB has done a good job of making sure the EUR will suffer the lion's share of any dollar appreciation. Unlike an increasing number of EM countries who feel the need to respond to the summer inflation spike, it seems the ECB is more than happy to position itself as not being rushed into premature tightening. The current environment should see EUR/USD continue to consolidate, although surprisingly strong Eurozone confidence indicators this week suggest EUR/USD could edge to the 1.1980/90 area over coming days.

GBP: GBP was an under-performer yesterday - hit by a BoE that was not quite as hawkish as traders had expected. The BoE was not particularly dovish, but it looked as though the market had got ahead of itself in pricing BoE hikes from summer 2022.

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