USD: With no key data in the US today and a slew of central bank meetings elsewhere, the general dollar trend should lack clear direction today. The announcements of the formal suspension of the economic dialogue between China and Australia should not have a lasting impact on markets given the already strained relationship between the two ahead of the event. Expect a quiet trading day in the FX markets.
CAD: The loonie continues to retain a firm tone, reflecting strong commodity prices, a positive risk mood and supportive US/Canada spreads. Canada’s March Trade balance returned to deficit, with lockdowns and one-off factors helping trim exports while imports rose strongly. There are no major data reports today, but the CAD may be sensitive to crude price moves.
EUR: EUR/USD should stay close to the 1.2000 level today. March EZ retail sales are set to rise, pointing to the improving trend of the EZ underlying economic data. Most continue to remain bullish on the euro with expectations of a sharp upswing in economic activity over the next few months.
GBP: The BoE to be marginally supportive of sterling. The BoE should deliver a series of upgrades to its economic forecasts today and this encouraging outlook suggests the Bank may announce QE tapering. While this should come as no surprise, on the margin it should be GBP positive, particularly after the tough month of April for sterling.
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