USD under pressure after FOMC losses continue to dominate
USD: The greenback remains under pressure across the board as the Fed continues to facilitate a weaker USD environment. The FOMC review: although the Fed acknowledged the improving economic outlook caution remains the name of the game and there was no hint at policy normalization. With front-end US real rates deeply negative and set to fall further as US CPI rises sharply this quarter, the outlook on the greenback continues to remain extremely negative, particularly when other parts of the world set to see an economic rebound in coming months. It is no surprise that the Canadian dollar have been the best performing G10 currencies over the past two days. President Biden’s speech in Congress yesterday further underscored his fiscal stimulus plans, adding additional support. Today, the focus turns to US 1Q GDP. It should be a strong number, led by stimulus-fuelled consumer spending.
CAD: The loonie has been the best performing currency overnight and most analysts remain constructive on the CAD outlook. The loonie is likely to appreciate over the coming days given the diverging stances adopted by the BoC vis-à-vis the Fed. Rate hikes remain a long way off, but markets are clearly factoring in the growing risk of a tightening after the middle of next year in Canada.
EUR: EUR/USD broke above the 1.2100 level overnight as the dovish Fed presided over broad-based USD weakness. This should keep EUR/USD on an upward trend in coming months further helped by the improving eurozone economic data. On the data front, we have preliminary German April CPI today, which is set to rise further, very close to the 2% level. However, as the European Central Bank will be looking through the upcoming CPI spikes (seen as temporary and driven by volatile factors) no reaction from the central bank is expected.
GBP: Although also benefiting from the softer USD environment the GBP/USD is very close to the 1.4000 level, political woes are limiting the GBP upside. Indeed, GBP/USD underperformed EUR/USD yesterday with a similar trend overnight. The Electoral Commission has now started an investigation into the funding of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's flat refurbishment. Coupled with the upcoming Scottish elections, all this points to limited near-term upside to GBP.
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