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USD seems lower than it should be

USD - US Dollar

A week that started with serious concerns around the impact of a potential Evergrande default is ending with a broad-based rally in equities. Despite being still unclear as to whether China will offer direct support to the company to mitigate solvency issues, the PBOC has been particularly active in pumping extra cash into the system to avert a liquidity crunch.

In FX, it is no surprise that the dollar has seen its upside capped as risk sentiment has improved. What appears more surprising is how the dollar struggled to find any kind of support on the back of the more hawkish than expected FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

Today is a very quiet day data-wise, with only housing data set to be released in the US. However, it will be a very busy one in terms of Fed speakers, as Powell, Clarida, Mester, George and Bostic are all set to speak at different events. While they may not add much to the recently updated policy message, it will be interesting to see whether they re-emphasize the role of jobs data and possibly provide further details about the ongoing tapering discussion.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The CAD is one of the top-performing currencies this week supported by the constructive risk mood and relatively firm crude oil prices. US-Canada short-term spreads have contracted a little in the aftermath of the Fed but remain CAD supportive. However, the chances of a significant CAD rally remain limited for now and broader trends should tend to favour the USD finding firm support on dips as we move into Q4.

EUR - Euro

A week full of events failed to generate any clear directional move in EUR/USD, which is back around in the 1.1700/1.1750 range level after some dollar weakness yesterday offered support to the pair. Following a below-consensus set of PMIs yesterday in the eurozone, today’s German IFO sentiment indices today should provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as businesses faced a combination of Delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions. German elections this weekend will provide direction into next week.

GBP - British Pound

The pound recovered nearly all of this week's losses yesterday after the Bank of England surprised on the hawkish side as: a) policymakers acknowledged that some recent developments have strengthened the case for “moderate tightening”; b) they now see inflation peaking above 4%. The result has been an increase in speculation for earlier tightening, with a 15bp rate hike in February 2022 now almost fully priced in. As we close out the week, we could see the currency staying supported into the weekend as higher BoE rate expectations offer a positive underlying narrative in a day without data releases worth highlighting in the UK.

Currency Chart

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