USD pressured across the board – CAD back down to 1.26
USD - US Dollar
The dollar suffered a sharp fall yesterday as investors jumped back into risk positions. This swing to a glass-half-full sentiment arrived surprisingly quickly after what seemed a poor environment late last week. Helping the short-term sentiment this week has certainly been the stability/improvement in Asian FX/equity markets. The question is whether investors want to add to risk positions ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole event. Most think investors will want to wait to hear on this subject from Jerome Powell on Friday before pushing ahead with another major round of risk-buying, dollar-selling. The data calendar looks pretty light today and even though overnight markets are keeping the risk-positive mood alive.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
Wild ride for CAD with plenty of questions on the way up and the way down, looks like concerns over the Delta variant and global risk appetite pushed the pair up to nonsensical levels and fade towards 1.30. Most didn’t expect the move back down to be so fast or so deep either. Anyway, remaining on point, 1.26 is where the Canadian CPI print came out last Wednesday so maybe the USD/CAD range will hold at current levels ahead of Jackson Hole.
EUR - Euro
The bounce-back in currencies has provided some support to EUR/USD. Locally the focus will be on the revisions to 2Q21 German GDP figures - just in at an upwardly revised 1.6% QoQ and largely driven by government consumption. However, until the ECB acknowledges that inflation is emerging firmer than their forecast, we doubt the EUR can enjoy much independent local support.
GBP - British Pound
GBP enjoyed a good bounce yesterday - and it wasn't clear why. Perhaps it was the sharp rise in commodities that lifted the Basic Materials components in equity benchmarks - and the FTSE having a high weight to these. There is no UK data today and GBP will probably be left to thrash around in the range of1.3600-1.3750.
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