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USD: No fiscal help coming this month…buckle up!

USD: Is back in the game after President Trump abruptly announced the end of negotiations on the next round of fiscal stimulus, delaying the decision to after the election. This is set to reinstate caution in markets about the prospects of near-term economic recovery, helping the safe haven dollar and keeping FX soft. On the data front today, the FOMC Minutes should offer little new news on the average inflation targeting framework and while the market may be more interested to hear about the conditions under which the Fed might tighten policy, this now seems a fairly distant event, particularly with the focus back on the need to deliver fiscal stimulus (as argued by Fed Chair Powell yesterday). Rather, attention should turn to the scheduled speeches of FOMC members (Williams, Evans) today and their possible comments on odds of more monetary stimulus in the absence of the fiscal help. On the Vice-Presidential debate between Pence and Harris, it is likely to be of lower importance with President Trump now back in the Oval Office, while polls show a double-digit lead for Democratic candidate Biden.

CAD: USD/CAD has managed to hold above the corrective support pivot at 1.3269 after Trump indicated that stimulus talks would be postponed until after the election. That being said, prices will have to close above resistance at 1.3399 in order to sustain the corrective momentum.

EUR: Weighed down by the stronger dollar. German Aug industrial production fell by more than expected this morning, but EUR/USD is to be primarily driven by the market disappointment about the abrupt end to the negotiations on the next round of the US fiscal stimulus. EUR/USD to trade with a downside bias towards 1.1700.

GBP: it is all about the UK-EU trade negotiations headline news GBP remains highly sensitive to the headline news on UK-EU trade negotiations, which often offer opposing messages. The stand-off on the topics of the state aid and fisheries remains, with reports suggesting the EU is willing to go through the UK’s self-imposed 15 October deadline.

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