The dollar is performing well. The dollar has stayed strong since last week's 6.2% October US CPI release and yesterday received a boost from stronger than expected US retail sales and industrial production. Driving near-term dollar strength continues to be the repricing of Fed rate hike expectations.
US October housing starts is the only US data of the day, but we have a whole raft of Fed speakers. it feels as though the 'transitory' Fed camp is melting away and most are shifting to a view of taking the inflation challenge more seriously.
The BoC’s Schembri wasn’t anywhere near as hawkish as Macklem on his comments yesterday which failed to move the CAD. This wasn’t surprising with the focus on Macklem’s concerns regarding elevated inflation pressures more important, which takes us nicely into today’s print. A CPI print above forecasts of 4.7% should see the loonie higher and will further encourage the view of an earlier lift-off in the rate hiking cycle. A lot is riding on today’s print, which if high will further encourage CAD strength in the short term.
EUR/USD briefly broke below important support at 1.1300 last night to a low of 1.1265. The strong dollar dominates the move, but also the surge in European gas prices is not particularly good for the EUR either. Negative terms of trade are depressing the fair value of the EUR. Not helping was yesterday's 17% spike in European gas.
There is not much European data today (just final October Eurozone CPI) and ECB's speakers leaving the currency to find direction on broad market moves. Most had felt 1.1300 may be the low for the month of November before some seasonal dollar weakness kicked in for December but last night's move suggests that there may be more weakness in the weeks ahead.
UK October CPI has just come in at 4.2% YoY, way above 3.9% consensus. This should cement a 15bp hike from the BoE on December 16th and keep GBP supported. We don’t expect a drastic move higher given the current risk that London may trigger the Article 16 over Northern Ireland trade over coming weeks.
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