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Daily Currency Update

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USD lower on inflation concerns

USD: The dollar did not enjoy too much follow-through buying after Wednesday's above-consensus US CPI. For today, the focus will be on US April Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers, plus consumer sentiment for May. Retail sales should remain strong after the bumper rise in March. We'll also get another perspective on inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey. Here 5-10 year inflation expectations are running at 2.7%. 

CAD: Governor Macklem did not provide any pushback against the recent run higher in the CAD, noting that while further CAD strength could be a headwind for the economy, current gains largely reflect gains in commodity prices and the resulting improvement in Canada’s terms of trade. The shorthand here is that the CAD’s rise is largely justified from fundamental point of view. Canada releases March manufacturing Sales, Wholesale Trade and Existing Home Sales this morning.

EUR: EUR/USD has held up reasonably well. For today, we will get to see the minutes of the April 21-22nd ECB meeting. This was a relatively quiet meeting, where the ECB was not drawn on its PEPP buying plans for 3Q21. We doubt the ECB would want to offer any more clarity on this in its minutes - but any hints that some tapering could be on the table might offer some marginal support to the EUR.

GBP: GBP is largely holding onto recent gains and progress on the Indian variant of the virus is yet to have any impact. Most expect that the GBP will derive benefit from the shift from growth to value investing in equity markets, where US markets are dominated by tech, but the UK has bigger weights to value stocks such as financials and energy.

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