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Daily Currency Update

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USD firmer into CPI this morning

USD: A widespread sell-off in global equities yesterday did not leave deep marks in G10 FX, with the dollar initially appearing unable to benefit from its safe-haven status. Overnight, equities continued to show signs of distress in Asia (Taiwan’s stock index dropped as much as 8.6% earlier today), and the dollar ultimately displayed a rally across the board. Also contributing to the global risk-averse sentiment are the rapidly escalating tensions in the Gaza strip. Data-wise, today sees the release of April’s inflation report in the US with a consensus of a 3.6% YoY headline read.

CAD: Is holding up relatively well against its major commodity peers as domestic yields provide support, alongside generally firm commodity prices. The loonie continues to maintain a firm undertone and remains the top performing major currency in YTD terms, with a 3.3% rise against the USD. The 2017 low at 1.2062 serves as the next major support of note for USD/CAD, with resistance at 1.2143.

EUR: The move in the dollar this morning has so far has not affected the EUR/USD which has been holding on to the 1.2100 area. Despite the improving virus situation in most parts of the EU likely putting a floor under the euro, the pair should continue to be mostly moved by the USD today. As highlighted above, we do not expect much help to the dollar from a largely expected increase in US CPI, and other global dynamics should therefore be the primary drivers.

GBP: England recorded zero Covid-19 deaths yesterday, the first time since the start of the pandemic. This is a testament to the encouraging contagion and vaccination efforts in the country, which will continue to put a floor under sterling as they keep expectations about the reopening of the economy alive. A set of UK data released this morning all referred to the period when restrictions were still in place and were likely overlooked by investors: GDP dropped 1.5% QoQ in 1Q, while industrial production jumped 3.6% YoY in March.

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