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USD firmer; CAD focus – speech from the throne

USD: Is broadly moderately firmer overnight, with EUR/USD notably hitting a seven-week low (1.1676), despite no real lead from asset markets (equity futures flat after cash closed slightly higher yesterday). AUD leads losses amongst the majors as an influential local forecaster called for an October RBA rate cut to 0.1% and domestic data were also weak.

CAD: Today’s speech from the Throne will provide direction for the upcoming legislative session. The Liberals have touted their plan as both “ambitious” and “responsible” to project that it is making worthwhile investments, but spending will not get out of hand. It is not clear how much of the additional spending will be for the current fiscal year (FY20/21), which had a massive deficit estimate of CAD343bn (~16% of nominal GDP) due to pandemic spending and revenue loss. The Liberals will need the support of at least one of the three major opposition parties, which most expect them to get. USD/CAD features support at 1.3272 and 1.3257, with 1.3349 and 1.3399 serving as resistance.

EUR: According to the August PMIs, services sector activity was close to stalling, printing 50.5, whilst manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace since February 2018, at 55.2. This loss of momentum in services activity was acknowledged by President Lagarde at the September ECB meeting and it’s something the ECB will keep a close eye on.

GBP: In the UK, the Commons approved the internal market bill last night without a formal vote, as was almost inevitable after the concessions to the rebels last week. EU trade negotiator Barnier heads to London today for informal trade talks.

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