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Daily Currency Update

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USD continues to shine…

USD: The USD is trading broadly higher versus most of its peers to start the day with most looking ahead to today’s US CPI report. Crude oil and other commodities continue to remain soft and commodity currencies are mostly under-performing. There is a run of key US data this week (CPI, Retail Sales, etc.) and Fed Chmn Powell is addressing US lawmakers on the economy and monetary policy over two days starting tomorrow. Inflation data and Powell’s comments are expected to help shape the Fed tapering debate but despite the USD’s gains over the past week or so— No firm view ahead of tomorrow, although U.S. CPI may well drive the direction.

CAD: The CAD continues to remain weak dragged lower by softer crude oil prices. That said, the loonie continues to dramatically deviate from what most consider a positive, basic fundamental backdrop. The BoC tomorrow is the highlight of the week and ahead of the decision, the loonie will be a reflection of the broader risk dynamic on the day. No firm view ahead of tomorrow, although U.S. inflation may well drive the direction of the USD today.

EUR: The EUR is lower and trading into the mid 1.18s, while resisting the broad risk-off tone that is lifting the dollar against most major currencies. ECB Pres Lagarde noted that the upcoming policy meeting will have some “interesting variations and changes”, which will reflect last week’s conclusion of the bank’s strategic review that resulted in a change in the inflation target to a symmetric 2%. With little of note on the Eurozone data/events calendar this week, markets will only have the ECB’s meeting next week to speculate on but, overall, the broad dollar mood looks set to dominate EUR price action until then.

GBP: No strong conviction in GBP at this point and we remain on the side-lines. Daily cases of the Delta variant continue to climb, although this is having a limited impact on the currency. After the recent sporting events and the ‘grand reopening’ planned for 19th July, there are still concerns those cases will rise exponentially, but if the cases/hospitalisations link is indeed broken. In the meantime, GBP remains a broader risk play driven by broader market themes.

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