Yesterday saw a significant risk rally, where European equities led the pack by gaining over 4% and emerging markets bounced back after recent losses. There could be several triggers for the risk rally yesterday including:
Central bank intervention
Slightly softer US data
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s smaller-than-expected hike
New money being put to work in thin markets
On the subject of central bank intervention, we remain sceptical that the Fed is about to pivot on the back of slightly softer US data this week. Focusing on the tight labor supply challenge, the Fed has already broadcasted that unemployment needs to rise from its current 3.7% to 4.4% next year to prevent the Fed funds from going any higher than 4.50-4.75%.
Most banks continue to suggest that the USD bull market is here to stay in the medium term.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
After finishing last week slightly above 1.38, the US dollar has been sold to nearly 1.35 yesterday. No follow-through selling has been seen overnight and the USD/CAD pair is back to the 1.36 area. The Canadian dollar has fallen out of favor today as US equity index futures are paring gains after two strong advances. Look for the pair to move toward the 1.3650 should equities continue to slide this morning. There is not much in terms of data releases from Canada today leaving the loonie to trade on broad market themes.
EUR - Euro
EUR/USD followed the stellar rally in risk assets yesterday and is now pressing the 1.000 resistance. We struggle to see much more behind the pair’s rally other than a broad dollar correction. Despite European assets rebounding it is hard to point to any material change in the eurozone’s outlook that would warrant a significant return of market appetite for the euro. There is not enough bullish push to keep EUR/USD above parity on a sustainable basis and continue to forecast a drop to the low 0.90’s into year-end. Today’s calendar is light with only final PMI figures and France’s industrial production highlighted.
GBP - British Pound
GBP/USD is now back to levels before the UK government’s fiscal event on 23 September. The government’s fiscal reputation has been tarnished and news that the chancellor may not after all bring forward his medium-term fiscal statement leaves sterling vulnerable. Look out for comments from PM Liz Truss at the Conservative Party conference today. We suspect that the sterling rebound and the dollar correction may have come far enough and could easily see the pair reversing to the 1.1200 area.
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