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Daily Currency Update

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US Treasuries Continue to Remain Vulnerable

USD: The FX market stabilized overnight after yet another day of meaningful USD gains yesterday. Stability is likely to remain the theme of the day ahead of the US Treasury auctions and the US inflation release tomorrow, which are the near-term risks for FX markets. Near-term, petro-currencies are likely to lead the pack with the rising oil price providing an offsetting factor to the challenging global risk environment.

CAD: As is the norm after a BoC statement-only meeting, Deputy Governor Schembri will present the usual Economic Progress Report today. The topic (Savings in the time of COVID-19, and the outlook for household spending) is timely, as (services) consumption is the expected driver of accelerated growth in 2021, with ample savings acting as a buffer to support this growth. Look for him to flesh out them Bank’s thoughts on this theme and possibly some comments around labour market scarring and the harder-hit sectors of the economy. USD/CAD features support at 1.2576 and resistance at 1.2657.

EUR: Another sharp dip in EUR/USD yesterday brought the EUR/USD pair into more meaningfully undervalued territory (around 2% based on short-term financial fair value models). Historicals suggests that over the past quarters, the dips in EUR/USD into such undervalued territory (around 2%) have been rare and short-lived. The current more pronounced undervaluation should help EUR/USD to defend the 200-day moving average support level of 1.1829.

GBP: Sterling continues pushing higher, with the clear divergence in the pace of vaccination and the central banks’ outlooks benefiting GBP. Although rising sharply, most analysts believe the current positioning can extend further as the GBP outlook remains appealing.

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