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US retails on tap this morning

As we go to press, USD is slightly up against most of G10 (JPY is the exception). In the US, President Trump and former VP Biden held competing town halls on Thursday night, with betting markets’ probability of Democrats winning the presidential election little changed at ~67%. Earlier in the day, Trump said he would support a larger fiscal package than the USD 1.8trn that the WH has offered, but it is not clear if the Senate Republicans will go along.

USD: Headline retail sales should be helped along by strong vehicle sales in September, as unit sales rose nicely to 16.4m. Economists look for a 1.3% m/m advance on the headline. Beneath the surface, sales should also look very decent. Credit card transaction data from the BEA showed a sharp upswing throughout the month of September. Indeed, relative to the pre-pandemic baseline, retail activity per this measure accelerated to an average of 4.1% from 1.7% in August.

CAD: Today sees the release of August international securities transactions and manufacturing sales (cons. -1.4%m/m, prior 7.0%m/m) data. The advance estimate from StatsCan pointed to a 2% decline in manufacturing sales in the month, in line with the pullback in export volumes of both motor vehicles (after an abnormally strong July) and aerospace products.

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