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Daily Currency Update

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US Dollar struggling ahead of tomorrow’s jobs numbers

USD - US Dollar

The soft dollar environment was further fuelled yesterday by weaker-than-expected US ADP payroll, which raises concerns that tomorrow’s official jobs figures won’t be strong enough to convince the Fed to announce tapering in September (and start in November). Given the predominance of jobs figures in recent Fed communication, the Fed rate expectations found no support from the above-consensus ISM manufacturing numbers. With this in mind and no market-moving data in the US today, we see a greater likelihood of the dollar staying generally offered today rather than showing signs of recovery.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

This week, the Canadian dollar has with USD/CAD still struggling to stage a decisive move below 1.2600 despite a generally weaker dollar. As mentioned in the USD section above, yesterday’s OPEC+ decision to keep hiking output in October sent some shockwaves into the oil market and added to the loonie’s choppy environment.

However, domestic factors appear to be weighing on CAD at the moment. A surprising contraction in 2Q activity has likely prompted some reassessment of the Bank of Canada rate expectations. Next week’s BoC meeting should see policymakers pause before the more critical October meeting, and it will probably be up to jobs data released later next week to tell us more about possible policy direction.

There is also the possibility that CAD is discounting some political risk as incumbent PM Trudeau’s Liberal party has lost some consensus in opinion polls, which raises the risk of them falling short of a parliament majority at the 20 September elections.

EUR - Euro

Thanks to some hawkish ECB voices becoming louder as inflation rose again in August, the euro has started to show some idiosyncratic support. All this is likely driving speculation that we may at least see some opposition to the very dovish policy line as the ECB meets next week. With USD that may stay broadly-offered into tomorrow’s NFP, EUR/USD may approach the late July 1.1890 highs today. If payrolls eventually come on the soft side, a break above 1.1900 may well be on the cards.

GBP - British Pound

Some EUR-specific strength has pushed the GBP a little weaker this past week. That said, most don’t see a strong case for GBP weakness and as a result, most expect the GBP to remain supported as we begin a new month.

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