Trump’s affliction; FOMC minutes; CAD employment data highlight the week
Notwithstanding the anxiety reflected in the volatility market on the approaching US election and President Trump's affliction, the US dollar has struggled for direction in recent days. In the latest briefing on Trump's medical condition, his doctors mentioned that he could be discharged as early as today, which is providing a welcome tonic to soothe those market anxieties.
Meanwhile, the latest polls show Biden's lead widening. US fiscal stimulus talks are ongoing, and likewise with the Brexit trade negotiation. Overnight PMIs showed continued recovery across the Asia-Pacific region. The rest of the day sees services PMIs from across Europe and the US.
Week ahead: The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will help market get a better gauge of the support within the committee for keeping policy rates at zero through 2023. The US trade balance (Tuesday) is also due. Beyond the scheduled calendar, the market will be focused on the stimulus discussions in Congress and Trump's medical condition. The Pence-Harris vice presidential debate on Wednesday would also be of interest.
EUR: The ECB minutes (Thursday), Germany factory orders (Tuesday) and Germany industrial production (Wednesday) are the key releases from the EU.
GBP: We expect the August GDP (Friday) to show the UK economy growing by 5.5% m/m, and the economy to have recovered to 95% of its pre-pandemic level by end-Q3. The other UK data releases include construction PMI (Tuesday) and industrial production (Friday).
CAD: Most economists forecast an approximately C$1bn improvement in the trade balance (Tuesday) to a C$1.5bn deficit in August. On the labour side, we estimate a 200K rise in September employment (Friday), reflecting a continued slowing in the pace of job growth. Underemployment has remained an issue while hours worked will rise further.
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