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Daily Currency Update

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Thin And Quiet Trading Ahead Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Data

USD - US Dollar

Short-term dollar yields have found support this week as the Fed has pushed back against the idea of a 2023 easing cycle. This is understandable in that the Fed is battling its toughest inflation challenge in 40 years and it will not help to keep inflation expectations contained if it starts outlining that this year's rate increases will be reversed next year. Arguably this could be the Fed's position until year-end when the Fed funds rate could be in the 3.25/3.50% region. Expect a quiet day in FX today ahead of tomorrow's July US jobs data.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

Canada reports June building permits and trade figures today but are not typically market movers. Tomorrow, Canada, like the US, reports July jobs data. Yesterday's gains in the Canadian dollar underscore the emphasis on the current risk environment. September WTI fell 4% yesterday and tumbled nearly 5% on Monday. The Canadian dollar trades more as a risk asset then a petro-currency. Initial US dollar support is seen around CAD1.2830, with the nearby cap in the CAD1.2860 area.

EUR - Euro

If we were to pick out two big drivers keeping EUR/USD depressed right now they would be the eurozone's terms of trade near its lows for the year and natural gas prices that continue to tick higher. EUR/USD looks soft towards the lower end of a 1.0100-1.0300 range and could easily sink back to parity at any time.

GBP - British Pound

The Bank of England has hiked rates by 50 basis points while also forecasting a recession lasting for five quarters. That shows just how worried it is that worker shortages and supply issues could keep inflation elevated even as the economy weakens. Another 50bp hike in September seems plausible. Sterling has sold off about 0.5% since the rate announcement. There were no surprises in the size of the rate hike, nor the voting pattern, yet the BoE’s narrative of further forceful tightening even as the economy heads into recession is a tricky one for growth-sensitive sterling. GBP/USD remains vulnerable to the strong dollar and a difficult risk environment.

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