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Daily Currency Update

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The loonie likely to remain supported and should be trading somewhat higher

USD - US Dollar

Amidst the many cross-currents in FX markets right now - energy, Evergrande, US debt ceiling, Delta - one theme that seems to be gaining traction is that the market lies on the cusp of re-assessing the path for the Fed tightening cycle. For today, look out from testimony from Powell and Yellen in front of the Senate Banking panel. Data wise, US data includes trade, house prices and consumer confidence. We do note that ripples of US debt ceiling concerns are starting to be seen in the US T-Bill strip (a small hump in yields in late October), but it seems the market expects the Democrats to secure Republican support in the Senate for a short-term funding bill into December. Let's see whether that can be secured by Friday.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The CAD is little changed overnight and has been trading in a very tight range post-BoC decision. Weaker oil prices are perhaps dragging on CAD sentiment. Fundamentally, the CAD looks poised to remain supported; asset purchases are likely to be trimmed, as expected, while guidance still points to rate hikes in H2 next year (which market pricing continues to reflect). Most analysts continue to suggest that the CAD should be trading somewhat higher than it is.

EUR - Euro

In past years the ECB's Sintra symposium had delivered some defining moments for the ECB. Think Draghi's very dovish comments at the 2019 event. That Sintra symposium is today opened by Christine Lagarde. Ahead of what should be another difficult round of inflation numbers later in the week (Eurozone September CPI rising to 3.3% YoY), the focus will be on ECB's view on inflation - likely still viewed as transitory - and any hints over how the end of the PEPP scheme will be handled next March. The EUR looks vulnerable and EUR/USD support at 1.1665 looks vulnerable today.

GBP - British Pound

BoE Bailey's speech yesterday was largely a repetition of what had been seen in last week's BoE communication, GBP interest rate markets are still moving higher. We do not expect the BoE to deliver on the hawkish expectations priced by the market, but for the time being this theme may well support the GBP. Look out for a speech from BoE's Mann today. Any support she gives to an early BoE rate hike would certainly add more strength to the pound.

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