The Big Chill Across the US Continues to Affect Energy Production
USD: With equities and commodity prices going higher and the US Treasury curve steepening, it is the commodity FX currencies including the CAD that are leading gains against the. The outlook for: (1) the strong 2Q rebound in the global economy; and (2) a cautious Federal Reserve remains too appealing to change the current trend.
CAD: The loonie has continued its rally but has struggled to really pull away from the 1.27 line as oil prices remain well-supported amid weather-related supply disruption in the US. The frigid weather and related power outages in the US are estimated to have reduced domestic production by a third, according to several Bloomberg reports. The output loss is expected to last several days at least. Firmer energy prices are helping limit CAD losses on the USD and drive a modest CAD out-performance on the crosses.
EUR: The focus today is on the February German ZEW survey and 4Q20 eurozone GDP. The latter is widely expected to contract by 5.1% year-on-year while the former should see a modest dip. Given the general market sentiment, this is unlikely to affect EUR much and EUR/USD should stay above the 1.2100 level today.
GBP: Sterling continues to push ahead as the dividend of rapid vaccination and the currency’s relative high beta among the three majors (USD, EUR and JPY) both help in the current reflationary environment. That said. the GBP showing signs of a modest overvaluation based on our short-term financial fair value model, the pace of near-term appreciation may slow from here.
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