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Daily Currency Update

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Short term USD spikes likely to be short lived

USD: The dollar-weighted index rise back above the 90 levels should be short-lived and should continue to move lower in the coming weeks and months. We don’t see comments by Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Randal Quarles about the importance of starting the discussion on quantitative easing tapering plans as having a longer-lasting positive impact on USD, as tapering later this year is expected by the market and is not imminent – we look for first hints at tapering during the Jackson Hole in August. This means that the near-term spikes in USD should be rather short-lived, particularly when the eurozone economic data are set to continue improving.

CAD: The CAD continues to consolidate above the 1.20 level. Spot has been trading within a tight range which suggests the CAD needs some additional help from spreads or commodity prices or renewed and broader pressure on the USD itself to spark an advance on the 1.20 zone in the short run. Broader fundamental trends are CAD-supportive, however, and we note that while US data releases have been tending to disappoint market expectations through May, Canadian data releases have been mostly bettering consensus calls over the past few weeks.

EUR: Limited data points today suggest EUR/USD should stay range bound and hover around the 1.2200 level. As for the ECB, the dovish voices seem to be strengthening. The latest remarks come from the ECB’s Fabio Panetta (following ECB François Villeroy’s comments on Tuesday), who suggested that inflation pressures are unlikely to persist.

GBP: Sterling has been largely unaffected by the news that Scotland plans to hold an independence referendum once the pandemic is over. As we argued previously, a referendum during this UK Parliamentary term is unlikely and as observed ahead of the Scottish or the Brexit referendums, the risk premium only starts to be built into the currency six months ahead of the event at the earliest. This means little imminent risk to GBP.

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