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Daily Currency Update

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Q2 is most likely to be very strong for the US

USD: Heading into a new quarter, the dollar looks forward to break-out US growth and a narrative of how much of Joe Biden’s $2.2trn infrastructure bill makes it through Congress by July 4th. With US headline inflation set to rise to 3.5-4.0% this quarter, the Fed will face an uncomfortable few months as it tries to fend off pressure to reduce monetary accommodation. For today, look out for another strong ISM Manufacturing reading in March and probably more scrutiny on the prices paid component.

CAD: The holiday-shortened week will come to an end with the release of February building permits data. Although a 1.4%m/m decline is expected after a strong 8.2% increase in January, the data is not expected to move markets. On the COVID front, New regional lockdowns in Canada might temporarily take some steam out of the CAD rally. Tuesday’s bullish move above USD/CAD 1.2606 has failed to see any topside follow-through, with support at 1.2540 and resistance at 1.2610.

EUR: One of the few positives in Europe right now is the performance of the manufacturing sector. Fortunately, Europe is well positioned to benefit here and the release of a strong set of manufacturing PMIs should help Europe withstand the hit to the service sector from renewed continental lockdowns. The current environment is unlikely to help EUR/USD in the short term. Most had expected a 1.1700 low for EUR/USD this week, but pressure is building to drop over coming weeks to 1.1550/1600.

GBP: The UK saw some healthy revisions to 4Q20 GDP yesterday largely driven by the investment side. This should continue to support GBP on a relative basis. The GBP which continues to remain supported by the vaccine rollout compared to its peers.

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