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Powell remarks should not lead to further sharp USD strength

USD: The highlight of the week should be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress today. The written remarks were already released yesterday and don’t point to an overly hawkish tone. The Chair is likely to stress that inflation is expected to drop towards the Fed’s long term goal (in turn underscoring the transitory nature of the recent CPI overshoot) and also hint at the uneven pace of the labour market recovery. The bias of the remarks does not suggest another strong rally for the dollar as seen late last week, particularly after the adjustment to market expectations that already happened after the June FOMC.

CAD: The CAD is edging lower in early trade as the USD’s rally seems to have fallen short of the 1.25 level. The CAD has picked up a little support from the rebound in broader market sentiment on the session, but we still note a huge discrepancy between spot and fair value models which continues to suggest an estimate for USDCAD around 1.19. Given the sharp fall in the CAD following last week’s FOMC decision, most remain cautious on the near-term outlook but still favour the USD fading over the coming weeks.

EUR: In EZ, the focus today is on June’s consumer confidence and the ECB’s Lane and Schnabel speeches, with the latter two likely distancing the ECB from any early hawkishness, in contrast to the Fed’s bias last week. Still, more important for EUR/USD will be the market reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s speech today. As per above, with Powell’s prepared remarks already released (and being no more hawkish than the FOMC last week) another material hit to EUR/USD should be unlikely. EUR/USD to stay above the 1.1850 in the near term.

GBP: The BoE policy decision this week is the top focus for the GBP. Policy is expected to remain on hold but departing Economist Haldane is expected to dissent again on asset purchases (as he did in May). Caution over COVID and the economic outlook suggests that Haldane is likely to remain isolated, however, and with this meeting being his last, it is not clear that Haldane’s position will have too much impact on the pound.

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