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Neither May US CPI nor the June ECB meeting should reverse the current soft USD environment

USD: All focus on the May US CPI release today. Most expect headline and core prices to jump 4.8% and 3.3% respectively. Although this should be a peak in US prices, inflation should remain elevated and above the target throughout the year. With the Fed in no rush to respond on the monetary policy side (the latest US labour market providing a further excuse for this cautious stance), rising US price pressure should continue to affect USD via deeply negative US real rates.

CAD: The loonie is up to the 1.21 mark but holding in the high 1.20s through the overnight session as yesterday’s BoC announcement was a non-event. The statement-only affair. We think markets should prepare for another QE pace reduction at the BoC’s July meeting to guide funds toward a breach of the 1.20 level. Deputy Governor Lane delivers an Economic Progress Report late today, though like the policy announcement yesterday, it is likely to be a holding exercise ahead of the “live” BoC meeting in July when a further tapering move is a possibility.

EUR: All the focus is on the ECB meeting today. The ECB is likely to avoid any tapering talk but given that this has already been communicated by ECB officials, this should not come as a surprise to markets and in turn, should have a limited impact on EUR. Expectations of no change in guidance on asset purchases, the balance of risks is modestly skewed to a higher EUR, should the press conference not reiterate the tapering on hold message strongly enough. The balance of risks is skewed to modestly higher EUR/USD.

GBP: PM Johnson meets President Biden today, ahead of the G7 Summit. With the news that President Biden is to press the UK to uphold the Good Friday Agreement, this should be marginally positive for GBP as it reduces the odds of further escalation in trade tensions between the UK and the EU. GBP/USD price action will be primarily driven by the market response to the US May CPI and the June ECB meeting.

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