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Markets calm ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC

USD: With the July FOMC meeting tomorrow, most analysts are expecting a quiet trading day today with no meaningful moves in the greenback against the G10. The street’s bias is for a slightly stronger dollar given the risk of some modest hawkish bias from the FOMC. As for today, the IMF is releasing an interim update on its World Economic Outlook. In April, the fund saw the world growing by 6% in 2021 and by 4.4% in 2022. It will be interesting to see if the IMF downgrades China’s forecasts much, if at all. In April, the IMF had China growing at 8.4% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022.

CAD: The loonie starts the day a little weaker but continues to remain rangebound around the 1.25 level. There isn’t much happening today with the exception of firmer commodity prices which are CAD supportive. Ahead of the FOMC the loonie may test the 1.26 level given the recent correlations between the CAD and US equity markets.

EUR: It is a quiet day across the eurozone today. June M3 money supply will have a limited impact on the euro with the EUR/USD expected to trade around the 1.1800 level today, with downside risk towards 1.1700 later this week given the possibility of a hawkish FOMC.

GBP: GBP got a boost from falling Covid cases in the UK, helping to reverse some prior losses partly caused by the previous worsening of the Covid situation and concerns about the effect of the full easing of restrictions. GBP/USD won’t move much today ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC.

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