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June FOMC minutes remain hawkish

USD - US Dollar

The dollar remains close to recent highs as recessionary fears mount, while central banks remain very much in hawkish mode. On that latter point, yesterday’s release of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes showed a Fed very much concerned by upside risks to inflation and prepared to take rates into restrictive territory (above 2.5%). Concerns about downside risks to growth featured very little and the Fed's risk management approach is clearly in favor of front-loaded tightening on the risk that inflation is more persistent than expected. Today's US data calendar is light and we doubt any small pick-up in initial jobless claims will be able to move markets much ahead of the Non Farm Payroll data tomorrow. 

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The CAD swung from trading in the mid-1.30s overnight to below 1.30 overnight as price action follows the broad dollar tone and crude oil prices in otherwise quiet trading. The weak risk mood and softer commodities have dented the CAD’s appeal on improving yield differentials against the USD as market bet on BoC hikes holding up better than the Fed’s. The CAD is still holding up better than most majors since the start of the year and reached its strongest level against the EUR since Apr 2015 earlier this week. Canada exports May trade figures today and is experiencing a positive terms of trade shock as export prices rise faster than import prices. Canada will also report June employment figures tomorrow. Observe the USD/CAD chart.

EUR - Euro

One striking feature of the re-pricing of global growth over recent weeks has been that the ECB tightening cycle has been re-priced lower and more aggressively than that of the Fed. Lower EUR:USD swap spreads are a key short-term driver of the EUR/USD and in the current environment, there are no signs of a significant floor in EUR/USD. Expect shallow consolidation – likely to be capped by a maximum 1.0350/70, or more likely 1.0270 – before the assault comes on parity. Tomorrow's NFP or next week's US CPI look the best candidates to trigger the test of parity.  

GBP - British Pound

Reports suggest that after more government resignations earlier today, the UK Prime Minister Johnson has agreed to step down. Reports suggest he wants to step down after the Tory leadership contest in Q4. This will then prompt a Conservative leadership election and possibly some earlier fiscal stimulus than had been expected.  GBP/USD remains vulnerable to the global recession/equity bear market story with the GBP/USD pair expected to trade in the 1.15 -1.17 region. 

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