Its going to be tough for the Fed to stick to its ultra-dovish stance
USD: The greenback was a little higher yesterday as risk-off sentiment in global markets dominated the markets and was further exacerbated by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggesting that interest rate increases may have to rise to prevent overheating in the economy. Yellen further clarified that she was not endorsing or suggesting monetary tightening. A speech by the Fed’s Charles Evans today may see some comments aimed at downplaying any tightening speculation. Data-wise, two releases will be closely monitored in the US today. First, ADP payroll numbers, which are expected to come in strong and will have a big role in forming expectations ahead of the jobs report on Friday; second, the ISM services index for April.
CAD: Though there seems to be a flood of vaccines in Canada off late, Covid case counts are going in the wrong direction this spring, and employment will take a hit in the process. Most analysts are looking for a significant retreat in jobs over April and May, although its not clear how much of that will show up in the first of those months. The goods trade balance could be a bit softer on slower oil export volumes in March.
EUR: The 1.2000 psychological support in EUR/USD should be heavily tested again today as the dollar could benefit from some good data while the data calendar in the eurozone is rather light. Final eurozone PMIs should be overlooked, and it might be too early to hear anything new from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane only a couple of weeks after the ECB meeting. Despite some potential downside pressure in the very short term on the pair, evidence that vaccinations are speeding up in the euro area bodes well for a sustained uptrend in the euro in the longer run.
GBP: A wait-and-see approach may dominate price action in sterling today as we head towards the Bank of England meeting tomorrow and no key data is released in the UK today.
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