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Its all about the ECB today | MTFX currency update

USD: The ECB meeting today is largely seen as the main event in a week where major FX currencies have not shown large moves. Risk sentiment has dominated the FX market, leaving the dollar supported against all G10 currencies except for the loonie, which appears to be benefitting from a delayed positive impact from last week’s BoC tapering announcement (which in our view suggests asset purchases in Canada will end by the end of 2021). The data flow in the US remains very light and looks unlikely to drive market expectations ahead of next weeks Federal Reserve meeting in one direction or another.

CAD: The CAD continues to improve as risk sentiment improves and commodity prices pick up. Both factors should, in theory, provide a bit more of a lift for the CAD. Crude oil has bounced nicely. With little to focus on data-wise today, the CAD is liable to continue tracking the broader USD tone. On the day, support will be found at 1.2420/30 with resistance at 1.2650/60.

EUR: Last week’s comments by Christine Lagarde and the recently published strategy review raised the stakes for today’s ECB policy meeting. Most analysts think that the EUR/USD risks are skewed to the downside today. The main reason are the expectations that the pace of tapering for 2022 may well be smaller than previously expected. This should underpin the notion that the ECB is not following the Fed in its hawkish trend and encourage markets to stay broadly bearish the EUR/USD which could see a move into the lower half of the 1.1700-1.1800 area.

GBP: In line with the view that the ECB meeting may have a negative impact on the EUR, the GBP may continue retracting today. Any sustained downtrend in the pair may have to face the Brexit-related news flow, which is once again signalling the political divergence between the UK and the EU as the latter reiterated that re-negotiating the Northern Ireland Protocol is not an option.

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