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Its All About Biden’s Infrastructure Plan

USD: The focus today turns to President Biden’s announcement of the infrastructure plan. With US Treasuries meaningfully under pressure yesterday, the environment is clearly supportive for the US dollar, particularly as Europe continues to battle with a third Covid wave. Still, Europe should see an economic rebound in late 2Q as the vaccination process gathers pace and US Treasury moves should become less erratic. As such, USD upside in 2Q should be more limited and European FX should eventually see some reversal.

CAD: In Canada, we have January GDP today. It should have a limited impact on the Canadian dollar, with the bigger focus being on the OPEC meeting tomorrow – with the possible extension of production cuts giving a helping hand to CAD. Yesterday’s move to 1.2606 could expose further CAD weakness into the 1.27’s.

EUR: March eurozone CPI inflation is set to rise to 1.2% year-on-year, with the main driver being food and energy prices. While the trend is set to continue in coming months and peak in the third quarter, a positive impact on the euro is unlikely as higher prices do not mean earlier ECB tightening. The ECB will look through the coming rise in prices and, if anything, the bias remains on the dovish side.

GBP: Today’s GDP release is the final version of the Q4 data and is expected to be unchanged. Alongside this data we get the Q4 current account. The headline deficit is expected to rise to close to a record high equivalent to more than 6% of GDP. Though worse than any other G10 economy, the data is unlikely to affect the GBP which continues to remain supported by the vaccine rollout compared to its peers.

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