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Improving global virus containment and gains across commodities, are putting pressure on the dollar

USD: It’s been a quiet start of the week in FX markets, with the dollar slightly weaker as additional signs of an improving virus situation in most of the world and futures pointing higher after a solid session in most of Asia today. Commodities have also remained a central theme for markets, as oil, natural gas, and iron ore have all moved higher. On the data side, the US calendar only includes some housing data which should not move the market. External factors – global virus developments, commodity prices – may remain the main drivers of risk appetite and the USD ahead of the FOMC minutes tomorrow.

CAD: Increasing oil paired with accelerating vaccinations in Canada has supported the loonie higher, which may test the key 1.2000 support in the coming days. A driver of the pair is indeed policy divergence, and a week with plenty of Fed speakers started off with a reiteration of the “no time to talk tapering” rhetoric from Vice Chair Richard Clarida yesterday.

EUR: EUR/USD outlook is likely to remain a USD and global risk appetite story for now, although the underlying supportive sentiment of improving virus dynamics in the eurozone has continued to provide positive reinforcement. Data-wise, the preliminary 1Q GDP report for the eurozone aggregate should confirm the 1.8% YoY contraction, but the impact on the market should be negligible.

GBP: Sterling is already benefiting from the low contagion/looser restriction combination in the UK, but data is also providing some support to UK-related sentiment today as the release of the March jobs report showed another decrease in unemployment. GBP appears to have enough tailwind to keep consolidating in the above-1.40 region.

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