IMF release growth forecast today; USD remains a bid
USD - US Dollar
The dollar stayed generally bid in holiday-thinned trading yesterday. Ahead of US CPI and the FOMC minutes tomorrow, the focus will probably be on the latest set of growth forecasts from the IMF, revealed in their October World Economic Outlook (WEO). Back in July the IMF had forecast world growth in 2021 and 2022 at 6.0% and 4.9% respectively. These forecasts were based on US growth at 7.0% and 4.9% and China at 8.1% and 5.7%.
Growth forecasts look at the risk of a downward revision - especially the US after a soft-patch in 3Q. Yet this is a long way from the term 'stagflation' being used by some at the moment. Typically the commodity currencies tend to react to IMF growth forecasts revisions.
US data today looks second-tier. We will get an update in the NFIB survey of how small businesses are coping with the energy spike. And JOLTS job opening data should confirm the current supply-demand mismatch in the US jobs market.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
A very quiet session for CAD yesterday, which was to be expected with Public holidays in both Canada and the U.S. although CAD is a little weaker this morning as stocks and Energy prices open lower. No change in view nor any suggestions that the CAD move is overdone. From a valuation perspective against oil and other factors, the USD/CAD fair value remains at a 1.20 handle. Therefore, while under the 1.2485/1.2520 area, there still remains room for acceleration. U.S. CPI is an important driver of sentiment this week.
EUR - Euro
Apart from the German ZEW investor survey, the Eurozone calendar is relatively light today. Instead, we will hear from a lot of ECB speakers. The lack of an ECB response has sent the trade-weighted EUR to the lowest levels since last May. And wide EUR vs USD rate differentials may further depress EUR/USD. A bullish dollar breakout can potentially drag EUR/USD to 1.13 over a coming couple of months. 1.1600/1640 may be the top for any corrective rally.
GBP - British Pound
We have just seen the latest batch of UK jobs data released. Jobless claims for September did not spike higher despite the end of the furlough scheme. And August average earnings came in on the high side. In short, there is nothing in this data to push back against the very early pricing of the BoE tightening cycle. Not much happening today domestically in the UK leaving the GBP to traders on broader market themes.
Get access to our market experts and sign up to receive the latest updates on any currency with our real-time exchange rate reports.
Sign up to receive the latest market news from our experts.
Who can use the MTFX payment service?
Individuals and businesses who need to send money in foreign currency internationally can use MTFX’s services. The beneficiary of the transfer must have a bank account for the funds to be paid into.
Personal clients usually use our services to transfer money between their own accounts in two different countries.
Business clients usually use our services to transfer funds to suppliers, fund international operations, or repatriate overseas earnings.
Why should I use MTFX and not my own bank?
MTFX offers currency exchange rates that are 2-5% better than those offered by the banks. Personal clients usually save hundreds of dollars per transfer and for larger transfers, the savings can run into the thousands.
We also offer excellent customer service, dedicated currency specialists, and a 24/7 online platform with best-in-class technology that allows you to complete transfers from any device virtually anywhere in the world.
Business customers save with better currency exchange rates and proven solutions geared towards managing and mitigating foreign exchange risk. Our solutions include forward contracts, market orders, rate alert services, and much more - all backed by great technology and great people.
How do customers send funds to MTFX?
Funds can be transferred via wire transfer, Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT), or ACH payment services. MTFX maintains bank accounts in all major currencies with highly-rated banks. Our banking infrastructure ensures that you can transfer funds to us quickly and securely.
How long does it take MTFX to transfer funds?
Our global network of banking partners allows us to get funds to virtually anywhere in the world quickly and efficiently. Most wire transfers from MTFX will be received by your beneficiary within 24-48 hours. MTFX also offers same-day transfers that are almost instantaneous, as well as low-cost in-country payment services for your less urgent transfers. For further information please speak to one of our currency specialists.