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IMF release growth forecast today; USD remains a bid

USD - US Dollar

The dollar stayed generally bid in holiday-thinned trading yesterday. Ahead of US CPI and the FOMC minutes tomorrow, the focus will probably be on the latest set of growth forecasts from the IMF, revealed in their October World Economic Outlook (WEO). Back in July the IMF had forecast world growth in 2021 and 2022 at 6.0% and 4.9% respectively. These forecasts were based on US growth at 7.0% and 4.9% and China at 8.1% and 5.7%.

Growth forecasts look at the risk of a downward revision - especially the US after a soft-patch in 3Q. Yet this is a long way from the term 'stagflation' being used by some at the moment. Typically the commodity currencies tend to react to IMF growth forecasts revisions.

US data today looks second-tier. We will get an update in the NFIB survey of how small businesses are coping with the energy spike. And JOLTS job opening data should confirm the current supply-demand mismatch in the US jobs market.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

A very quiet session for CAD yesterday, which was to be expected with Public holidays in both Canada and the U.S. although CAD is a little weaker this morning as stocks and Energy prices open lower. No change in view nor any suggestions that the CAD move is overdone. From a valuation perspective against oil and other factors, the USD/CAD fair value remains at a 1.20 handle. Therefore, while under the 1.2485/1.2520 area, there still remains room for acceleration. U.S. CPI is an important driver of sentiment this week.

EUR - Euro

Apart from the German ZEW investor survey, the Eurozone calendar is relatively light today. Instead, we will hear from a lot of ECB speakers. The lack of an ECB response has sent the trade-weighted EUR to the lowest levels since last May. And wide EUR vs USD rate differentials may further depress EUR/USD. A bullish dollar breakout can potentially drag EUR/USD to 1.13 over a coming couple of months. 1.1600/1640 may be the top for any corrective rally.

GBP - British Pound

We have just seen the latest batch of UK jobs data released. Jobless claims for September did not spike higher despite the end of the furlough scheme. And August average earnings came in on the high side. In short, there is nothing in this data to push back against the very early pricing of the BoE tightening cycle. Not much happening today domestically in the UK leaving the GBP to traders on broader market themes.

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