Greenback Takes a Breather, All Eyes on BoC Tomorrow
USD: The FX market stabilized overnight after the USD continued gains yesterday. The calm markets are expected to remain today ahead the US Treasury auction and the inflation prints tomorrow. Both events present a clear risk to FX markets given the risk associated to further sell-off in Treasuries. Near term analysts expect commodity currencies to outperform with rising oil prices providing an offset to the challenging global environment.
CAD: The CAD had a wild ride yesterday as oil prices spiked on news of an attack on crude plant in Saudi Arabia. Oil rose to $68/bbl before dropping to $66/bbl. Rising oil and commodity prices continue to suggest that the CAD is likely to remain supported ahead of tomorrow’s BoC meeting. Though no change in policy is expected, the Bank may comment on the positive growth in the economy and the current strength of the loonie vis-à-vis the greenback.
EUR: The euro experienced another sharp drop yesterday bringing the EUR/USD into an undervalued position of nearly 2% based on fair market value models. The current (and most likely short lived) undervaluation will likely have the EUR/USD testing near term support at 1.1829. All said, expect the EUR/USD to gain over the coming weeks.
GBP: The pound continues to push higher against most of its peers including the USD and euro. The clear divergence on currency valuation continues to remain the speed of vaccination and the outlook of the BoE compared to its other G10 counterparts. The near-term outlook for the GBP continues to remain extremely appealing compared the EUR and USD. Most analysts continue to expect the GBP/USD to trade in the 1.40’s in the next few weeks.
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