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Greenback Stabilizing But Mixed Ahead of Fed Speakers

USD: Some stabilization in global yields paved the way for a widespread recovery in risk assets, with the S&P500 having its strongest day in nine months. In FX, G10 commodity currencies led the way, but the dollar remained resilient on weak demand for low-yielders. Today, Asian equities signalled that risk appetite is abating, and stock index futures point to a weak open across Europe and the U.S. It is a pretty quiet day data-wise today, after yesterday’s strong ISM Manufacturing appeared to endorse inflation concerns. For now, the US dollar may prove resilient if risk assets move back into positive territory later today.

CAD: The CAD is a modest out-performer on the day, helped by a rebound in crude prices following Friday’s sharp sell-off. Crude prices are steadying ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting where market participants expect producers to loosen output curbs—although there is a high degree of uncertainty about just how much production cuts will be relaxed. More generally, the CAD should be able to benefit from a stabilization in US yields and a rebound in risk assets. Despite last week’s sharp fall in the CAD, broader fundamental trends (and supportive commodity prices) are little changed which suggests some “bargain hunting” support for the CAD should also emerge as markets steady.

EUR: The European Central Bank slowed the pace of bond purchases last week. But that was largely due to higher redemptions, so markets were only mildly touched by the news. After all, the Bank’s rhetoric has remained very firm on curbing spikes in yields. EUR/USD has remained unfazed by the swift change in equity sentiment. The overstretched EUR long positioning and USD resilience may continue to be a source of weakness for EUR/USD as EUR-specific drivers appear to be lacking at the moment, and the pair may break below the 1.2000 level today.

GBP: Momentum in sterling has somewhat eased in the past few days, but ever more encouraging data on vaccination and contagion in the UK should continue to underpin hopes of a faster recovery, and keep a floor under the currency.

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