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Daily Currency Update

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Greenback’s softness will continue to dominate

USD: With Fed officials pointing to the temporary nature of the inflation increase, there is little need for the market to price in any imminent and meaningful Fed policy tapering. Coupled with the recovering global economy and signs of a more synchronized growth outlook, this is not an environment where USD would flourish, particularly when facing an ultra-negative real rate.  For now, the downward trend on the greenback continues to remain in play.

CAD: The CAD continues to remain supported though a little lower than yesterday. The USD/CAD is trying to breach support at 1.21 this morning despite Monday’s comments by Governor Macklem who noted that tapering asset purchases was the right move for the local economy. There appears to be little concern at the central bank about the CAD and the message is clear that the central bank will keep policy settings aligned with the economy as it works towards its goals. Spreads remain CAD-supportive but crude oil has softened as markets ponder the chances of progress on the Iran nuclear accord. Most remain broadly bullish on the outlook for the CAD and see little opportunity for the USD to rally significantly at this point.

EUR: While ECB officials are pushing against the notion of any imminent QE tapering this isn’t and shouldn't be enough to push EUR meaningfully lower. The soft USD environment dominates and, with the Fed in no rush to start normalizing monetary policy, EUR/USD is set to grind higher over the medium term.

GBP: The British pound was weighed down by market concerns about the imposition of more restrictive government guidance on selected UK areas where the Indian variant spread is the fastest. Still, with the vaccine being effective against the Indian variant and the UK vaccination process gaining pace again, the impact on the economic rebound projected for this quarter and next should not be overly negative. This suggests that GBP continues to gain against the USD.

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