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Daily Currency Update

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Greenback’s short lived bounce seems to be over

USD: While the FOMC minutes might have surprised with the tapering talk, the relatively limited reaction in the US Treasury market and also in the FX market suggests that (a) QE tapering later this year is the market’s base case; (b) a move towards policy normalization will be cautious. Comments from the Dallas Fed’s Kaplan yesterday afternoon about starting the tapering conversation "sooner rather than later" didn't give the recent dollar rebound legs. Overall, unless we see a meaningful shift towards more aggressive Fed tightening (here the talk of QE tapering in H2 is unlikely to suffice as this is widely expected) and the subsequent reversal in the USD front-end rates dynamics (currently most negative in the G10 FX space), the USD rebound episodes are likely to be should be short-lived, as we have seen this week.

CAD: The data flow has underpinned CAD’s good momentum this week, with April inflation rising above expectations to 3.4% and ultimately supporting hawkish expectations on the central bank. Yesterday’s comments by Governor Tiff Macklem did not denote any alarming tone on higher inflation, but also highlighted the concerns about surging house prices and referred to current rates as “unusually low”. Today, we'll see the release of March retail sales, which are widely expected to have risen at a slower pace compared to February but may not have significant market implications as the figures will be heavily impacted by Covid-19 restrictions. It seems the recent fast vaccine roll-out in the country is possibly making investors more tolerant of some not-so-good pieces of data. USD/CAD may test the critical 1.2000 support very soon.

EUR: The May Eurozone PMIs are expected to tick higher, reflecting the improving sentiment helped by the pick-up in the vaccination programme and the re-opening plans. With the recent dollar rebound fading, EUR/USD is set to test the 1.2250 level over the coming weeks.

GBP: The UK May PMIs are set to rise today, with the rising consumer and business confidence aided by the vaccination programme and re-opening. With the recent dollar rebound softening, this points to higher GBP/USD (back above 1.4200).

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