USD: The dollar decline is taking a pause and with limited data points in the US and other developed markets today, the dollar looks to consolidate ahead of the April US CPI tomorrow. The periods of dollar consolidation should be short-lived and shallow, and the expected spike in US CPI close to 4% YoY tomorrow should weigh on USD. Put together, the Federal Reserve's lack of response to rising price pressures should weigh on USD in coming months, while commodity currencies where local central banks are set to react to capacity constraints (as in Canada) should do well.
CAD: The CAD retains a firm undertone but is trading off the overnight peak against the soft-looking USD, with the USD briefly trading on a 1.20 handle. Firm commodity prices and the prospect of global yields remaining low for longer provide a clear offset to the softer than expected Canadian jobs data. Most analysts remain bullish on the CAD outlook
EUR: EUR/USD is set to trade sideways today yet should stay above 1.2100. There are peripheral data points across Europe today but there isn’t much in terms of data leaving the EUR to trade on broad market themes.
GBP: After trading with a persistent risk premium over the past three weeks the sterling rally yesterday. The Scottish elections were not supposed to have a long-lasting negative impact on GBP and the GBP rally yesterday provided a case in point. With the UK government confirming the next step of the reopening of the economy, the solid UK data points this quarter should benefit GBP. The Queen’s speech today should have a limited impact on the pound. We look for further gains in GBP/USD in the weeks ahead.
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