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Greenback anxieties; FOMC meeting ahead

USD: FOMC meeting ahead, but not many fireworks expected. The key event of the week is the FOMC meeting (Wednesday). While the central bank may seek to operationalize its new average inflation targeting approach with some additional forward guidance, the soft Fed policy looks largely priced in following Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, meaning that more positive news is needed to push cyclical currencies higher and the dollar lower. With fragile equity markets and risk sentiment, it is unlikely to happen this week. This suggests a lack of downside to the dollar and a range bound greenback this week.

CAD: Most are looking for a 0.2% m/m decline in August headline CPI (Wednesday), leaving the YoY rate unchanged at +0.1%. The average of the BoC’s three core measures fell to 1.63% in July and analysts expect this downward trend to continue in August, given the high degree of slack in the economy. Indications are that StatsCan’s +0.7% m/m estimate for July retail sales (Wednesday) is below where it will print while July’s GDP estimate of 3% seems to be in line with what most expect.

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