FX Markets Continue To Remain Rangebound Ahead of FOMC
USD: The FOMC rate announcement (tomorrow) appears to be encouraging a wait-and-see approach in markets, which is resulting in a depressed volatility environment in FX. The very contained moves seen in G10 so far this week have followed the lines of a broad improvement in global risk appetite pushed by oil reaching two-year highs.
Today’s focus in the US will be on some data releases, including May’s retail sales, where a combination of slower auto sales and some consumers’ spending shifting back to services such as travel or entertainment (not included in retail sales) are likely to contribute to a negative read. May’s industrial production and May’s PPI will also be watched. Today’s data flow looks unlikely, however, to drive any meaningful change in rate expectations ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting,
CAD: The loonie weakened yesterday from a low of 1.2128 to just below 1.22 at the time of writing. There is no real reason for the move lower despite oil gaining on the day. Ahead of the CPI release this morning and the FOMC tomorrow there is little to get excited about. That said, the fundamentals-based model suggests USDCAD should trade just under 1.19, mainly on the back of strong crude prices.
EUR: Following the G7 meeting over the weekend and the NATO summit yesterday, US President Joe Biden will meet with EU leaders today. Trade and tariffs will likely be the main theme under discussion. Signs of further unwinding of the Trump-era protectionist agenda by President Biden should be welcomed by European sentiment, although there is likely very little priced in when it comes to EU-US trade-related downside risk to the EUR.
GBP: The UK Government has delayed its plans for a full re-opening of the economy until July due to the recent rise in Delta-variant cases across the country. The move was well telegraphed and had no market impact. Moreover, the delay in the full re-opening does not materially change the positive underlying economic recovery narrative and data released this morning continued to support, as jobless claims dropped even more in May than in April.
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