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Daily Currency Update

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FOMC Should Not Interrupt the Dollar Bear Trend

USD: The dollar continues to sit near the lows of the year, and we doubt it will get any support from today’s FOMC meeting. Central to the current dollar decline is the view that; a) a recovery will be forthcoming and that the Fed will be successful in lifting inflation and b) the Fed will keep rates on the floor well into 2023. We do not expect the Fed’s new projections to challenge this narrative (growth expectations slightly raised, no significant adjustments in Dot Plots of expected Fed Funds) and the focus will be on any clarification of bond purchases – be that forward guidance or any extension of duration in asset purchases in an effort to keep a lid on yields at the long end of the US Treasury curve. We do not see anything dollar positive emerging from the Fed and the current benign dollar decline could extend were Congress to make progress on a new slimmed down $748bn stimulus bill.

CAD: We expect headline y/y CPI to remain unchanged at 0.7% in November, though the average of the BoC’s core measures may edge down slightly (1.8% in October). Yesterday’s bearish breakout below 1.2730 exposes 1.2677 next on the downside.

EUR: Today sees the flash PMIs for the eurozone, Germany and France. Little improvement is expected in the services sector, while the manufacturing sector should still be supportive. The soft dollar environment is keeping EUR/USD bid, but the extension of lockdowns in Germany and across Europe suggest bulls should tread carefully. EUR/USD can drift to 1.2230/50 if there are no nasty surprises from the Fed (unlikely). Any progress on Brexit is also a EUR/USD positive.

GBP: Remains beholden to the latest tweets – the most recent seemingly pointing towards a greater chance of a deal. Thin December markets and some big technical levels in cable at 1.3500/40 warn of strong gains to 1.37 on any concrete signs of progress.

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