The Fed has managed to successfully announce tapering with barely a ripple in global asset markets. The Fed has fired the starting gun on policy normalization which should eventually lead to tighter dollar liquidity, higher US rates and a stronger dollar.
With tapering out of the way and six weeks until the next FOMC meetings, the focus will very much be on US data. The US calendar is quite ahead of jobs data tomorrow, but the dollar could today enjoy some modest gains against the oil exporters as Brent remains under pressure on this week's crude inventory builds, the restart of the Iran nuclear talks and the OPEC+ meeting later today.
The loonie paid no attention to oil futures and tracked close to other commodity currencies overnight. There was some significant buying action in the mid 1.23’s yesterday post FOMC. Given the Fed has started tapering, most now see the USD/CAD trading in a tight range of 1.21 – 1.24. Look out for some volatility today as OPEC+ meets to discuss plans to increase daily output by 400K barrels/day.
The ECB is having some success in taking the steam out of 2022 tightening expectations and it looks as though the doves are regaining some control. There are a few ECB speakers today, but overall we would expect EUR/USD to remain quiet ahead of tomorrow's jobs data.
It's BoE day. GBP has corrected a little this week already and most suspect that it may have a little further to go should it appear that Governor Bailey does not carry at least 8 of the nine-member MPC with him in voting for a 15bp rate hike. That said, a BoE hike well before the Fed does tee up GBP for further gains over the coming months as UK inflation pressures continue to build.
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