Employment data from US and Canada tomorrow will drive direction
US Dollar - USD
A largely range-bound trading session was shaken yesterday by a set of hawkish comments by Fed’s Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, which pushed the dollar higher. Despite the Delta variant spread, Clarida signalled how the US economy is on a fairly solid recovery track, which warrants an unwinding of monetary stimulus. He added that if the growth outlook remains strong, he favours a tapering announcement by the end of the year. On forward guidance, he said that he expects the economic conditions necessary to raise rates to be met by the end of 2022, which allowed markets to cement their view that a first-rate hike will be delivered in 2023. The hawkish comments by Clarida came at a time when markets were starting to look with some concern at some data misses (including ADP payrolls earlier yesterday) as a potential signal the Fed might have to turn more cautious on its tapering plans. For today, the dollar will remain rangebound with a quiet US calendar (focus will only be on jobless claims).
Canadian Dollar - CAD
The Canadian dollar was driven more by USD moves yesterday more than anything else. Today will likely be a quiet one as the market waits for employment data tomorrow. The greenback aside, crude prices have drifted a little lower while spreads are stable. Spot remains well below a Fair Value estimate (1.1804). Snap election speculation continues to simmer, which is no great surprise as minority governments rarely run to a full term in Canada.
Euro - EUR
EUR/USD remains largely driven by dollar dynamics. Clarida’s hawkish remarks came at a time when the pair was testing the 1.1900 level, sending it back to the middle of the 1.1750/1.1900 range seen in the past month. Except for the rarely market-moving ECB economic bulletin, there are no clear EUR catalysts in the eurozone's calendar.
British Pound - GBP
It’s all about the Bank of England meeting today. There is a low probability that policymakers will turn more hawkish at this meeting. This means that most do not expect to hear any hints about an earlier rate hike. On the growth outlook, the spread of the Delta variant should force a downgrade of 3Q forecasts but expect the BoE to keep signalling the economy is on track to reach pre-pandemic levels by year-end. The impact on GBP should be rather limited and neutral. If anything, there could be a risk that part of the market has priced in more than two votes for an early end of QE (a hawkish signal), which may cause marginal repricing of rate expectations and some GBP weakness.
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