Sticky Registration Sticky Customer Support

Daily Currency Update

Get access to our expert daily market analysis and discover and track your currency pair using our exchange rate tools. EUR, GBP, USD & CAD Forecast.

ECB day – In ECB We Trust

USD - US Dollar

There is a complex layer of stories at play in FX markets at present. Risk assets have temporarily stabilized and US activity data is holding up such that investors remain happy to price a Fed terminal rate up at 3.25% next year. We expect continued outperformance of the North American currencies, since it seems that US consumption is holding up and it looks far too early to call time on the Fed tightening cycle. Next week's FOMC meeting will provide an update on the Dot Plots and we will get to see how much the median dot pushes above 3.00% for end-2023 expectations of the Fed policy rate.  

There is little US data today and the next big input will be tomorrow's US May CPI - where the White House is already warning of a high number. With that in mind, we expect the dollar to continue consolidate near recent highs.   

CAD - Canadian Dollar

Canada will release its May employment figures tomorrow. The median projection in Bloomberg's survey predicts that full-time jobs will account for the majority of the 27.5k additional jobs. Canada's economy appears to be outperforming that of the United States. Instead of a 50-bp boost next month, the market is almost halfway to pricing in a 75-bp hike. After initially dropping through CAD1.2520, the US dollar regained versus the Canadian dollar yesterday. Early European action saw it settle near its highs (CAD1.2565) and approach CAD1.2580. Around CAD1.2540 is where support is found. While today's session appears to be quiet, the US CPI and Canadian jobs data may tell a different tale tomorrow. Observe the USD/CAD chart.

EUR - Euro

ECB day will see a policy announcement and the press conference today. We think that the eurozone money markets have priced in quite an aggressive ECB cycle already. In particular, they price five 25bp hikes for four live (July, September, October, December) ECB meetings this year. We doubt the ECB will want to pour cold water on this pricing since its hawkish turn over the last month has managed to lift the trade-weighted euro some 2% off its lows seen in early May. One can see then why the euro has remained quite resilient this week. Ultimately, however, we do not think any EUR/USD spike above 1.08 will last too long given that we like the dollar story this summer and Europe is sadly on the front line of the stagflationary shock of the war in Ukraine.

GBP - British Pound

The run-up in the GBP looks a function of positioning for the ECB rather than any negative re-assessment of sterling. The eurozone faces many of the same challenges faced by the UK and it may be a little too early for the Bank of England (BoE) to pour cold water on market expectations of an aggressive tightening cycle.  BoE/Ipsos inflation expectations released tomorrow may be the next important input here.  We look for some volatility in the pound as we close the week.

Currency Chart

Get access to our market experts and sign up to receive the latest updates on any currency with our real-time exchange rate reports.

Sign up to receive the latest market news from our experts.

Daily Currency Updates
Daily Market Analysis
Get daily intelligence and currency reports directly to your inbox.
Weekly FX Technical Analysis
Weekly Technical Analysis
Get our weekly technical analysis providing valuable insights.
Monthly Currency Outlook
Monthly Currency Outlook
Receive our monthly currency report and help improve your forecasts.

By entering your email address you agree to the MTFX Terms Of Use and MTFX Privacy Policy and agree and agree to receive sales and marketing communications. Unsubscribe at anytime.

FAQs

Individuals and businesses who need to send money in foreign currency internationally can use MTFX’s services. The beneficiary of the transfer must have a bank account for the funds to be paid into. Personal clients usually use our services to transfer money between their own accounts in two different countries. Business clients usually use our services to transfer funds to suppliers, fund international operations, or repatriate overseas earnings.
MTFX offers currency exchange rates that are 2-5% better than those offered by the banks. Personal clients usually save hundreds of dollars per transfer and for larger transfers, the savings can run into the thousands. We also offer excellent customer service, dedicated currency specialists, and a 24/7 online platform with best-in-class technology that allows you to complete transfers from any device virtually anywhere in the world. Business customers save with better currency exchange rates and proven solutions geared towards managing and mitigating foreign exchange risk. Our solutions include forward contracts, market orders, rate alert services, and much more - all backed by great technology and great people.
Funds can be transferred via wire transfer, Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT), or ACH payment services. MTFX maintains bank accounts in all major currencies with highly-rated banks. Our banking infrastructure ensures that you can transfer funds to us quickly and securely.
Our global network of banking partners allows us to get funds to virtually anywhere in the world quickly and efficiently. Most wire transfers from MTFX will be received by your beneficiary within 24-48 hours. MTFX also offers same-day transfers that are almost instantaneous, as well as low-cost in-country payment services for your less urgent transfers. For further information please speak to one of our currency specialists.