The dollar has entered a consolidative mode. We note the rise in USD/CNH which may be giving the dollar a little support. For today, we have five Fed speakers. Market pricing for the 14 December FOMC meeting is settling on a 50bp hike and any further reference should not affect the greenback much more. Most analysts continue to favor an upside move for the USD against most of the G10 over the coming weeks.
Canada's October CPI was largely in line with expectations; unchanged at 6.9% year-over-year. The underlying core rates remained firm. The market was unmoved by the data and have about a 33% chance that the Bank of Canada hikes again by half-a-point rather than slow another notch to 25 bp. It meets on December 7. The target rate is now at 3.75% and the market looks for a peak in Q2 23 between 4.25% and 4.50%. There continues to remain a strong correlation between the changes in the Canadian dollar and the S&P 500. The 60-day rolling correlation reached beyond 0.78 yesterday, the highest since late 2011. The immediate for the USD/CAD suggests and extension to around 1.34.
EUR/USD remains in corrective mode and is not reacting much to press reports of the European Central Bank favouring a 50bp over a 75bp hike in December - and one can argue that this makes the 1.05 area a slightly firmer ceiling for 4Q22. Expect EUR/USD to be dragged around by GBP/USD today - just as it was in September. 1.0270-1.0500 remains our expected near-term trading range for EUR/USD.
The big day has arrived. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will unveil the autumn statement aimed at plugging the fiscal hole that led to the collapse of Bonds and sterling in September. Investor views of UK fiscal credibility have largely returned to pre-Truss levels. A positive re-assessment of the UK fiscal position has largely taken place and suggests that sterling does not have to rally a lot more on a credible budget. That said, a credible budget will deliver substantial fiscal tightening and cement views of a multi-quarter UK recession and one in which the Bank of England will continue to hike rates into 2023. Overall, we expect GBP/USD to be unable to hold any gains above 1.20 and see the pair trading at sub 1.15 levels before year-end.
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