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Canadian Jobs on Tap This Morning

USD: FX markets are ending the week a little calmer having negotiated the two long-dated US Treasury auctions and now President Joe Biden signing a $1.9trn stimulus bill into law. Ahead of the main event, which is the Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday, today sees US February PPI and the March data set from the University of Michigan. This survey contains a question on 5-10-year US inflation expectations. Typically, this doesn’t move markets, but given the volatile bond market, any upside surprise here could un-nerve Treasuries and lend the dollar a little support.

CAD: Canada releases its February jobs data at 8.30ET. The street is looking for a 75k gain but there is a huge spread over the survey, from –10k to +200k, with a (very loose) concentration of forecasts between +75k/ +150k. That suggests the outcome will struggle to surprise markets but a weak print could still curb the CAD after the run up through mid-week. Stronger data (above 100K, say) should still be able to give the CAD a lift into the weekend and reverse some of the softness seen in overnight trade.

EUR: EUR/USD negotiated the ECB’s surprise announcement of front-loaded PEPP pretty well. In practise this should see the weekly reports of ECB bond activity, starting Monday, 22 March show ECB weekly net PEPP purchases rising towards EUR 20bn from recent figures nearer EUR12bn. Most don’t think that this will be too negative for the EUR and more liquidity and bond stability certainly should help emerging market FX.

GBP: Today’s January UK data dump is old news yet does seem slightly GBP positive in that monthly GDP didn’t fall quite as hard as expected and the trade deficit narrowed sharply, where imports fell more than exports. Most expect the GBP to continue is ascent against the G10.

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