The dollar suffered a sizeable correction across the board yesterday, which was primarily fuelled by two factors: a significant rebound in global risk assets, and a growing narrative of other central banks closing the gap with the Federal Reserve. The question is whether yesterday’s moves have marked the first stage of a dollar depreciating trend? While most analysts wouldn’t completely rule this out, the risks to a bearish dollar scenario remain quite elevated. If the dollar did bottom out in the past week, the path to a sustained depreciation remains challenging, and would most likely be very gradual moving forward. Today, the US data calendar only includes existing home sales data, after yesterday’s new home starts figures came in below expectations. Expect limited market impact, and most dollar moves to be driven by non-US factors.
The greenback has a fallen for three sessions against the Canadian dollar coming into today and edged a bit lower to almost 1.2855. The low for the month is closer to 1.2835. Last week's peak was near 1.3225. The downside momentum appears to be easing but the key may be the broader risk appetite and if US equities can extend their recovery. For today, keep an eye on Canada’s inflation numbers, which are expected to have accelerated further in June and should endorse the Bank of Canada’s aggressive policy tightening. Observe the USD/CAD chart.
EUR/USD jumped well above 1.0200 yesterday following the news that the ECB is actively considering a 50bp rate hike tomorrow. As of today, only three members explicitly backed a half-point hike before the “quiet period” kicked in, and markets are currently attaching a 50% chance of a 50bp move tomorrow. The Russia-EU spat on gas supply will remain in focus today as we head into tomorrow’s ECB risk event. Volatility should remain the name of the game for EUR/USD. The eurozone’s data calendar includes consumer confidence figures for June today.
UK CPI came in only slightly above consensus, accelerating from 9.1% to 9.4% year-on-year in June. The core rate appears to have peaked and there are signs that the supply-constrained bits of CPI are cooling. Today’s release will not be the key factor to tilt the August BoE policy decision in one direction or the other. It appears to be a global central bank tightening story that is pushing the Bank to consider a larger rate hike at this stage. Yesterday, Governor Andrew Bailey quite explicitly opened the door to a 50bp move, and that remains our base case for the August meeting.