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Canada employment report in focus

USD: The Fed minutes earlier this week delivered no negative surprise for risk sentiment, with the committee reiterating no need to rush into tightening of monetary conditions and further support the recovery. We expect the very accommodative Fed to eventually weigh on USD as we move into the summer - rising inflation, yet no signs of imminent rate hikes will push front-end US real rates further into the deep negative, and coupled with the recovering global, should weigh on USD.

CAD: Canada Employment data is the focus today, with the market looking for another 100k jobs to be added to the work force. While the view has been to be long CAD, the Covid situation is weighing on sentiment. Therefore, if there is any ‘give back’ in today’s number after the previous months impressive print, then CAD will have a poor day and the market will likely start to reassess this month’s BoC meeting. Another positive print though and CAD should start to reassert itself, at least on the crosses, after a tough week.

EUR: The euro continued to grind out to the topside without really gaining too much momentum. A close above 1.1900 was positive but as we walk in this morning we have come back slightly lower. Discussion surrounds whether the good performance of the euro this week is due to position unwinds or anything more important, a fully priced in US recovery versus looking beyond what is currently a bleak assessment of the European situation. For now I think it’s unclear but based on price action alone coupled with very steady handed comments from Fed officials last night there’s still some ground to be gained for the euro.

GBP: Despite some relative stability to start to the day sterling still could not catch a break with the US seemingly heavy sellers once more. GBP underwent a material correction, on the back of concerns about the slowing pace of vaccination, blood clots issues related to AstraZeneca. The UK regulator flagged that the balance of benefits and risks still favours the AstraZeneca vaccine (only below 30s will be offered alternative vaccines), and the UK government reiterated that its plan to offer the first dose to all adults by the end of July remains unchanged. Nothing on the calendar today.

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