Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Likely to Cause Some Ripple Effects Across FX Markets
USD: The data calendar in major economies looks rather dull leaving the market to trade on broader themes. In the US, two Fed speakers (Williams and Quarles) should not attract much interest. The key event of the week is set to be the unveiling by President Biden of his infrastructure plan on Wednesday, with another bold fiscal move (some media reports suggested the stimulus plan may be as large as $4tn) further endorsing the narrative of US exceptionalism in the economic recovery. This same narrative has been supported this week after Biden said that 90% of adults will be able to get a vaccine by 19 April. While the dollar may benefit from the infrastructure plan announcement tomorrow, G10 currencies may continue to follow two different speeds today, where a generally supported risk sentiment keeps commodity currencies bid, while the likes of EUR and JPY on the other (suffering from re-rising yields) stay offered.
CAD: Has bee relatively quiet and has largely ignored the move lower in Oil over the last few days. That said, the BoC will be one of the first central banks to normalize and with the Canadian economy set to benefit from the massive stimulus in the U.S, still remains and buying on weakness remains the preferred trade. Therefore, any USD/CAD demand that might emerge from Month/Quarter end flows will be eagerly sold into.
EUR: EUR/USD should still struggle to stage a solid rebound even in a more risk-on environment for now, as concerns about EU countries to speed up vaccinations should leave EUR upside capped. Not much happing today on the data front so expect a quiet trading session.
GBP: The pound continues to remain supported against the EUR and other G10 with diverging paths on the vaccination side in the UK and the EU. Most expect the GBP to continue to drift higher over the coming weeks.
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