Another round of tapering by the Bank of Canada today should support
USD: Yet another upside surprise to the US CPI provided a boost to the dollar and questioned the cautious FOMC guidance. With headline June US CPI reaching the highest level since 2008, question marks about its transitory nature and the fact that headline CPI will stay above 4% through until 1Q22, will put Fed Powell’s testimony later today front and center. With the Fed expected to start the QE tapering later this year the dollar downside vs G10 FX should be rather limited.
CAD: The loonie was one of main victims of the post-US inflation USD rally. While the general environment for the CAD remains unstable, the Bank of Canada should continue to provide support to the currency. Expect the BoC to taper asset purchases again today, from C$2bn to C$3bn per week, which is largely warranted by some very strong jobs numbers for June. This will fuel expectations that the BoC will conclude its QE program by the end of the year and help CAD recover some of the recent losses.
EUR: The strong June US CPI reading sent EUR/USD below the 1.1800 level. While high price pressures should force the Fed to start earlier policy normalization vs its own current forecast, the ECB should remain cautious, in turn limiting the upside potential to EUR/USD.
GBP: Following the wider trend, the UK June CPI surprised on the upside today, with June's headline reading reaching 2.5%YoY. The volatility in UK CPI numbers over the summer months should not come as a surprise and the currently high inflation should not necessarily point to imminent BoE tightening as CPI pressures are to calm down in 2022 (after peaking in 4Q, around 3%). This means a limited positive spillover into GBP today.
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