USD: FX pairs might continue to trade in rather tight ranges today as US markets re-open but trading volumes will stay low for another day. Black Friday will be an interesting gauge of the resilience of consumer spending during the pandemic, especially after the uninspiring US personal spending numbers from October. Elsewhere, virus and vaccine news remain the main catalysts for markets as the US calendar is empty until Monday. Different dynamics are once again seen in the US and Europe, as new clusters in NYC and other major cities may pave the way for tougher restrictions in the US while some European countries are announcing looser containment measures ahead of the winter holidays. Oil should remain a driver for relative performance in FX as investors enter positions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting next week where an extension to output cuts will be discussed.
CAD: The loonie continues to be pushed and pulled by currencies moving versus the USD, leaving CAD stronger against the greenback over the past month. At 1.30, the C$ is firmer than levels that have historically been consistent with supporting Canadian export growth. With oil prices unlikely to return to earlier heights, that has the C$ starting at an overvalued level on trade fundamentals. The loonie’s next technical bottom is 1.2952.
EUR: Some downbeat remarks by ECB’s Philip Lane yesterday (who highlighted worsening financing conditions) and the rather outdated ECB minutes (which merely confirmed the plans for more stimulus in December) left no mark on EUR. Some EZ sentiment indicators are released today, although much of the narrative in this sense has been dictated by the PMIs and IFO earlier this week, so the market impact will likely be negligible. Watch out for spill-over effects from Brexit-related news in the next few days.
GBP: Another week without tangible progress in Brexit negotiations has left sterling rather supported as investors retain an optimistic stance on a UK-EU trade deal. Once again, the make-or-break moment for sterling (with asymmetrical downside risks in case of no deal) looks around the corner, but timing remains a big question mark.
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